Reserve List Chance Estimator
Find out the likelihood of your child receiving an offer from the OC or Selective school reserve list, based on historical data.
How reserve lists work
You get a band
When your child is placed on a reserve list, the outcome letter shows a band from A (best) to F (unlikely). The band estimates your chances based on previous years.
Offers roll down
As families decline their initial offers, places open up. The reserve list moves down band by band over several months, from Band A through to Band F.
Bands are estimates
Bands are based on last year's movement — they are not guarantees. The actual list can move further or less depending on how many families decline each year.
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is this estimator?
Our tool compares your reserve band against community-tracked historical data from 2024-2026. It gives an informed estimate but cannot predict the exact movement for this year, which depends on how many families decline their offers.
Where does the data come from?
Reserve band data is sourced from community tracking sites and NSW Department of Education publications. We use bands reported for 2024, 2025, and the live 2026 cycle.
What do the bands mean?
Band A means offers within ~1 month, Band B ~2 months, Band C ~3 months, Band D ~4 months, Band E ~5 months, and Band F means unlikely to receive an offer at all. These are approximate timeframes.
Can my child move between bands?
The band assigned to your child stays the same, but the bands themselves are updated as offers go out. The Department updates the minimum band that has received an offer periodically during the placement period.
Should I accept another offer while on the reserve list?
Yes. Accept any firm offer you have. If a reserve list offer comes through later, you can typically switch. Being on a reserve list does not guarantee a place.
2025 reserve list results
What reserve bands were reached in 2025?
Parents ask us this every year: did the reserve list actually move, and how far? Here is what happened last year across NSW, based on community-tracked data.
Band A
1 schools
Band B
40 schools
Band C
11 schools
Band D
2 schools
Band E
23 schools
Band F
0 schools
In 2025, 77 of OC schools reported reserve list movement, with offers reaching Band A at 1 school, Band B at 40 schools, Band C at 11 schools, Band D at 2 schools, Band E at 23 schools.
One OC school saw the list move all the way to Band A in 2025: Cudgegong Valley Public School. That is rare, and it shows how much lists vary between schools.
Compared with 2024, last year's lists moved much further: only 22 schools reached Band B in 2024, and none reached Band A.
Schools where the reserve list reached Band B or better in 2025
Band A (1 school)
Cudgegong Valley Public School
Band B (40 schools)
Alstonville Public School
Armidale City Public School
Artarmon Public School
Biraban Public School
Blacktown South Public School
Bradbury Public School
Casula Public School
Cessnock West Public School
Chatswood Public School
Colyton Public School
Dural Public School
Ermington Public School
Georges Hall Public School
Gosford Public School
Greenacre Public School
Greystanes Public School
Hurstville Public School
Ironbark Ridge Public School
Kingswood Public School
Leumeah Public School
Lindfield East Public School
Maryland Public School
Matthew Pearce Public School
Miranda Public School
New Lambton Public School
Newbridge Heights Public School
North Rocks Public School
Penrith Public School
Quakers Hill Public School
Ryde Public School
Smithfield Public School
South Grafton Public School
St Andrews Public School
St Clair Public School
Sutherland Public School
Tamworth Public School
Waitara Public School
Wentworth Falls Public School
Wollongong Public School
Wyong Public School
Band C (11 schools)
Alexandria Park Community School
Ashfield Public School
Balgowlah Heights Public School
Brookvale Public School
Earlwood Public School
Holsworthy Public School
Jewells Primary School
Soldiers Point Public School
Sturt Public School
Toongabbie Public School
Toormina Public School
Band D (2 schools)
Blaxcell Street Public School
Moss Vale Public School
Band E (23 schools)
Balmain Public School
Beecroft Public School
Blacktown West Public School
Camden South Public School
Caringbah North Public School
Goulburn West Public School
Harrington Street Public School
Maroubra Junction Public School
Mona Vale Public School
Neutral Bay Public School
Picnic Point Public School
Port Macquarie Public School
Queanbeyan South Public School
Richmond Public School
Rutherford Public School
St Johns Park Public School
Summer Hill Public School
Tahmoor Public School
Tamworth South Public School
Tighes Hill Public School
Wahroonga Public School
Wilkins Public School
Woollahra Public School
What do the reserve bands mean?
Your outcome letter shows a band from A (best) to F (unlikely). Here is roughly what each band means for timing:
Band A: Very high chance. Offers usually go out within about a month.
Band B: High chance. Offers usually go out within about two months.
Band C: Good chance. Offers usually go out within about three months.
Band D: Moderate chance. Offers usually go out within about four months.
Band E: Low chance. Offers usually go out within about five months.
Band F: Very low chance. An offer is unlikely.
Frequently asked questions
What reserve bands were successful in 2025?
For OC classes, 77 of 88 schools reported reserve list movement in 2025. One school reached Band A (Cudgegong Valley Public School), 40 schools reached Band B, 11 reached Band C, and 2 reached Band D. The rest ended at Band E or lower.
When do reserve list offers go out?
Offers roll out over several months after the initial placement outcomes. As families decline offers, places open up and the list moves down band by band, usually starting within weeks of outcomes day and continuing through the following months.
How long is the reserve list?
There is no published length. The list runs as deep as the number of students placed on it, and how far it moves depends on how many families decline their offer. Most movement happens in the first few months.
Will the list move as far this year as it did in 2025?
Not necessarily. Movement depends on how many families accept, decline, or change schools each year. Treat this year's live band as the current signal and last year's band as a guide, not a promise.
What does it mean if my band is below last year's lowest band?
It means an offer is unlikely based on recent history, though lists can surprise. Keep an eye on the live 2026 bands in the tool above, which update as offers go out.
Where does this data come from?
Reserve bands are community-tracked from NSW Department of Education publications and reserve list updates, with three years of history: 2024, 2025 and the live 2026 cycle. The data was last updated in September 2025.
Bands reflect the lowest band that received an offer at each school, as reported by the community. Schools without data in a given year are excluded from that year's totals.