Reserve List Chance Estimator
Find out the likelihood of your child receiving an offer from the OC or Selective school reserve list, based on historical data.
How reserve lists work
You get a band
When your child is placed on a reserve list, the outcome letter shows a band from A (best) to F (unlikely). The band estimates your chances based on previous years.
Offers roll down
As families decline their initial offers, places open up. The reserve list moves down band by band over several months, from Band A through to Band F.
Bands are estimates
Bands are based on last year's movement — they are not guarantees. The actual list can move further or less depending on how many families decline each year.
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is this estimator?
Our tool compares your reserve band against community-tracked historical data from 2024-2026. It gives an informed estimate but cannot predict the exact movement for this year, which depends on how many families decline their offers.
Where does the data come from?
Reserve band data is sourced from community tracking sites and NSW Department of Education publications. We use bands reported for 2024, 2025, and the live 2026 cycle.
What do the bands mean?
Band A means offers within ~1 month, Band B ~2 months, Band C ~3 months, Band D ~4 months, Band E ~5 months, and Band F means unlikely to receive an offer at all. These are approximate timeframes.
Can my child move between bands?
The band assigned to your child stays the same, but the bands themselves are updated as offers go out. The Department updates the minimum band that has received an offer periodically during the placement period.
Should I accept another offer while on the reserve list?
Yes. Accept any firm offer you have. If a reserve list offer comes through later, you can typically switch. Being on a reserve list does not guarantee a place.
2025 reserve list results
What reserve bands were reached in 2025?
Parents ask us this every year: did the reserve list actually move, and how far? Here is what happened last year across NSW, based on community-tracked data.
Band A
0 schools
Band B
9 schools
Band C
6 schools
Band D
6 schools
Band E
10 schools
Band F
10 schools
In 2025, 41 of selective schools reported reserve list movement, with offers reaching Band B at 9 schools, Band C at 6 schools, Band D at 6 schools, Band E at 10 schools, Band F at 10 schools.
Movement in 2024 was even smaller: only 23 schools reported bands, and nearly every list ended at Band E or F.
Schools where the reserve list reached Band B or better in 2025
Band B (9 schools)
Chatswood High School
Elizabeth Macarthur High School
Farrer Memorial Agricultural High School
Hornsby Girls High School
Hurlstone Agricultural High School
North Sydney Boys High School
North Sydney Girls High School
Penrith High School
Prairiewood High School
Band C (6 schools)
Bonnyrigg High School
Caringbah High School
Girraween High School
Granville Boys High School
Normanhurst Boys High School
Ryde Secondary College
Band D (6 schools)
Aurora College
Blacktown Boys High School
Gorokan High School
Gosford High School
Sydney Secondary College, Balmain Campus
Sydney Secondary College, Leichhardt Campus
Band E (10 schools)
Auburn Girls High School
Baulkham Hills High School
Blacktown Girls High School
Macquarie Fields High School
Moorebank High School
Smiths Hill High School
St George Girls High School
Sydney Boys High School
Sydney Girls High School
Sydney Technical High School
Band F (10 schools)
Alexandria Park Community School
Armidale Secondary College
James Ruse Agricultural High School
Karabar High School
Kooringal High School
Merewether High School
Northern Beaches Secondary College, Manly campus
Parramatta High School
Peel High School
Sefton High School
What do the reserve bands mean?
Your outcome letter shows a band from A (best) to F (unlikely). Here is roughly what each band means for timing:
Band A: Very high chance. Offers usually go out within about a month.
Band B: High chance. Offers usually go out within about two months.
Band C: Good chance. Offers usually go out within about three months.
Band D: Moderate chance. Offers usually go out within about four months.
Band E: Low chance. Offers usually go out within about five months.
Band F: Very low chance. An offer is unlikely.
Frequently asked questions
What reserve bands were successful in 2025?
For selective schools, 41 of 48 schools reported reserve list movement in 2025. No list reached Band A; 9 schools reached Band B, 6 reached Band C, and 6 reached Band D. The remaining lists ended at Band E or F.
When do reserve list offers go out?
Offers roll out over several months after the initial placement outcomes. As families decline offers, places open up and the list moves down band by band, usually starting within weeks of outcomes day and continuing through the following months.
How long is the reserve list?
There is no published length. The list runs as deep as the number of students placed on it, and how far it moves depends on how many families decline their offer. Most movement happens in the first few months.
Will the list move as far this year as it did in 2025?
Not necessarily. Movement depends on how many families accept, decline, or change schools each year. Treat this year's live band as the current signal and last year's band as a guide, not a promise.
What does it mean if my band is below last year's lowest band?
It means an offer is unlikely based on recent history, though lists can surprise. Keep an eye on the live 2026 bands in the tool above, which update as offers go out.
Where does this data come from?
Reserve bands are community-tracked from NSW Department of Education publications and reserve list updates, with three years of history: 2024, 2025 and the live 2026 cycle. The data was last updated in September 2025.
Bands reflect the lowest band that received an offer at each school, as reported by the community. Schools without data in a given year are excluded from that year's totals.