Reserve List Chance Estimator
Find out the likelihood of your child receiving an offer from the OC or Selective school reserve list, based on historical data.
How reserve lists work
You get a band
When your child is placed on a reserve list, the outcome letter shows a band from A (best) to F (unlikely). The band estimates your chances based on previous years.
Offers roll down
As families decline their initial offers, places open up. The reserve list moves down band by band over several months, from Band A through to Band F.
Bands are estimates
Bands are based on last year's movement — they are not guarantees. The actual list can move further or less depending on how many families decline each year.
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is this estimator?
Our tool compares your reserve band against community-tracked historical data from 2024-2026. It gives an informed estimate but cannot predict the exact movement for this year, which depends on how many families decline their offers.
Where does the data come from?
Reserve band data is sourced from community tracking sites and NSW Department of Education publications. We use bands reported for 2024, 2025, and the live 2026 cycle.
What do the bands mean?
Band A means offers within ~1 month, Band B ~2 months, Band C ~3 months, Band D ~4 months, Band E ~5 months, and Band F means unlikely to receive an offer at all. These are approximate timeframes.
Can my child move between bands?
The band assigned to your child stays the same, but the bands themselves are updated as offers go out. The Department updates the minimum band that has received an offer periodically during the placement period.
Should I accept another offer while on the reserve list?
Yes. Accept any firm offer you have. If a reserve list offer comes through later, you can typically switch. Being on a reserve list does not guarantee a place.